- MSc thesis
- Διοίκηση Επιχειρήσεων (MBA)
- 30 June 2023
- Αγγλικά
- 101
- ΜΠΙΤΖΕΝΗΣ, ΑΡΙΣΤΕΙΔΗΣ, Δρ
- ΤΣΙΟΤΡΑΣ ΓΕΩΡΓΙΟΣ,Δρ.
- wild risk, engineering projects, black swan, gamma distribution, socio-technical systems, risk management
- ΜΒΑ
- 1
- 99
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Recent engineering projects in the aerospace sector and more specifically the commercial jet transport category aircraft indicate that risk assessment and management could be presently based on wrong assumptions. In particular, there are indications that risk probabilities in such projects (and the associated production systems) could be following other than the Normal distribution and other similar, bell-shaped distributions. Furthermore, there are indications that such projects and systems are affected by the presence of wild risk, as defined by Mandelbrot. This study uses a sample of production data from the aerospace industry to perform goodness-of-fit tests in a range of probability distributions and trace the presence of wild risk in it. The results of this study indicate that the Gamma distribution is an appropriate fit for the modelling of engineering projects and systems, corresponding to their socio-technical nature. Furthermore, despite limitations in the data, this study uncovered manifestations of wild risk in them, that support the idea of the presence of such risk in engineering systems. It is suggested that more advanced methods, like fractals, should be used for their modelling, in order to better fit risk in such systems.
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- Hellenic Open University
- Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Διεθνές